Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has long been a subject of intense speculation, technical analysis, and institutional interest. One analytical framework that continues to draw attention among seasoned traders and analysts is the Wyckoff Method—a century-old market theory that still offers valuable insights into modern crypto markets. As Bitcoin appears to enter the final phase of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, the question on everyone’s mind is: Are we witnessing the groundwork of the next major bull run?
This article explores the Wyckoff Accumulation model in detail, applies it to Bitcoin’s current price action, and examines the signals that suggest we may be in the final and most critical stage of accumulation: the Spring and Markup Phase.
Understanding the Wyckoff Accumulation Model
Developed by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 1900s, the Wyckoff Method is a technical approach to understanding market cycles and the actions of smart money (large institutional players). The model describes how large players accumulate assets without tipping off the general public, and how prices behave before large trends emerge.
The Wyckoff Accumulation model is composed of five key phases:
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Phase A: Stopping the Downtrend
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Phase B: Building the Cause
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Phase C: The Spring (Bear Trap)
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Phase D: Markup
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Phase E: Distribution or Uptrend Continuation
Each phase reflects the shifting dynamics of supply and demand as smart money slowly absorbs available supply at low prices before a major move to the upside.
Bitcoin and Wyckoff: A Historical Pattern
Bitcoin has shown past behavior that fits remarkably well with Wyckoff principles. The 2018-2020 bear market concluded with a clear Wyckoff accumulation pattern, and in 2021, analysts noted a Wyckoff distribution phase near Bitcoin’s all-time high.
As of mid-2025, market watchers and analysts alike suggest that Bitcoin is completing another accumulation cycle. After a brutal bear market and extended period of consolidation, the recent price action suggests we are entering Phase C or D of the accumulation—commonly referred to as the “final phase.”
Breakdown of Bitcoin’s Current Wyckoff Accumulation Cycle
Let’s break down Bitcoin’s current behavior and map it to the Wyckoff phases to determine whether we are indeed in the final accumulation stage.
Phase A: Preliminary Support (PS), Selling Climax (SC), and Automatic Rally (AR)
This phase typically starts when the downtrend begins to slow. Bitcoin’s recent downtrend from 2022 into 2023 showed clear signs of exhaustion, with a Selling Climax (SC) around the $15,000–$17,000 level. Panic selling hit its peak, followed by a sharp Automatic Rally (AR)—Bitcoin rebounded to the $24,000–$26,000 level.
This phase confirms that the aggressive selling pressure has subsided, and large players have started testing the market.
Phase B: Secondary Tests and Range-Bound Movement
Phase B represents a long period of sideways movement where smart money quietly accumulates positions. This phase often frustrates retail traders because the price lacks a clear trend.
Throughout 2023 and much of 2024, Bitcoin was trapped in a range between $24,000 and $34,000. Numerous Secondary Tests (STs) and shakeouts occurred to test supply and to force weak hands out of the market. This period saw declining volatility, low volume spikes, and increasing bullish divergence on momentum indicators—hallmarks of Wyckoff’s Phase B.
Phase C: The Spring – Final Shakeout
The Spring is a defining feature of the Wyckoff Accumulation. It often presents as a false breakdown below the trading range, designed to scare retail traders and trigger stop-loss orders. The goal? To allow institutions to accumulate more Bitcoin at discounted prices.
In early 2025, Bitcoin briefly dipped back to the $27,000 level, momentarily breaking the lower boundary of the trading range. This was accompanied by high volume but quickly followed by a sharp reversal and recovery.
This move mimicked a “Spring”—the final bear trap. If confirmed, this phase marks the completion of accumulation and the transition into Phase D, the markup.
Signals Confirming We’re in the Final Phase
Several technical and fundamental indicators now align with the Wyckoff narrative, supporting the idea that Bitcoin is in the final accumulation stage:
1. Volume Profile
Recent price rallies have occurred on increasing volume, a classic Wyckoff signal that demand is overpowering supply. The prior downtrends were marked by decreasing volume, indicating selling exhaustion.
2. Higher Lows and Absorption
Even after brief corrections, Bitcoin has consistently formed higher lows. More importantly, bearish attempts are being met with absorption, meaning large buy orders are eating up sell pressure without causing significant price drops.
3. Open Interest and Derivatives Cooling Off
Excessive leverage and speculative positioning—hallmarks of distribution tops—are absent. This reflects a healthier spot-driven market, another indicator of institutional accumulation rather than retail speculation.
4. On-Chain Data
Metrics such as Exchange Balances, HODL Waves, and Realized Cap HODL Ratio (RHODL) show coins moving off exchanges and long-term holders strengthening. This is consistent with smart money accumulating and preparing for a major rally.
What Comes After the Final Phase?
If Bitcoin has indeed completed or is completing the Spring of the Wyckoff Accumulation, the next phase is Markup (Phase D)—a period where price begins a sustained rally and retail re-enters the market.
In this phase:
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Bitcoin would break above resistance (around $36,000–$40,000).
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A “Sign of Strength” (SOS) emerges with strong upward candles and volume surges.
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The market establishes higher highs and higher lows, a structure absent in the prior phases.
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Media narratives and sentiment shift from fear and boredom to cautious optimism.
Psychological Perspective: Why Wyckoff Still Works
The enduring relevance of the Wyckoff Method is largely due to its psychological insights into market cycles. Each phase reflects a different emotional state in the market:
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Phase A: Fear turns to disbelief.
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Phase B: Frustration and boredom dominate.
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Phase C: Panic and capitulation.
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Phase D: Hope returns as smart money begins to push prices.
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Phase E: Euphoria as retail piles in.
Bitcoin’s recent sentiment metrics—social media mentions, Google search trends, and news coverage—support this cycle. The market appears to have bottomed out emotionally, which aligns with Wyckoff’s model perfectly.
Risks and Contrarian Views
While the Wyckoff Accumulation model offers a compelling lens, it is not infallible. Key risks include:
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Macro Events: A global financial crisis, war, or regulatory shock could derail any bullish setup.
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False Springs: Not every spring results in a bull market. Some turn into failed rallies.
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AI and Bots: Modern trading algorithms can mimic Wyckoff phases, leading to deceptive patterns.
For this reason, traders must combine Wyckoff analysis with broader tools—on-chain metrics, macroeconomic indicators, and volume-weighted technical signals.
Conclusion: Bitcoin Poised for Lift-Off?
As of July 2025, all signs suggest that Bitcoin is either in or approaching the final stages of the Wyckoff Accumulation. The Spring appears to have been executed, and bullish structure is forming as confidence returns to the market.
If the model plays out as expected, Bitcoin could enter a new bull cycle—possibly retesting previous highs and even pushing into uncharted territory. However, patience remains crucial. The final stages of accumulation require confirmation through breakout structure, volume expansion, and a shift in market psychology.
For those who understand and respect the Wyckoff method, this moment could represent a generational buying opportunity.